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04

May, 2018

Predicting The Kentucky Derby Odds And Morning Line Favorite Using Social Data

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Summary:

Horse Racing enthusiasts and amateurs are getting pretty sharp. For the last FIVE years in a row, the betting favorite has donned the coveted garland of roses after the running of the Kentucky Derby.

Horses aren’t the only ones getting fancy. On the first Saturday of May, derby goers gussy up in fresh spring suits, exuberant hats and fascinators, and dresses fit for Easter Sunday. (Unless they are infield bound, of course.)

At Churchill Downs, the only thing that outnumbers attendees (158,000+) are Mint Juleps and ice cold beers (nearly 650,000 combined).

Many betters study jockeys and research track conditions, while others pick a name that sounds right or a horse that “looks pretty”.

At LikeFolio, we’ve got our own system. We’re tracking Derby buzz to spot fan favorite horses and track betting actions – a metric we’ve appropriately deemed “Betting Intent”.

Here is the breakdown of Twitter mentions through Friday morning….

Justify is clearly the fan favorite heading into Saturday’s showdown, and should be the morning line favorite at 5:2 or 3:1, according to our data.

Ultimately, the winner is determined by the horses themselves… so we say may the best horse win and the mint juleps be strong.

It should also be noted that we are seeing record high levels of social enthusiasm for this year’s Kentucky Derby… a good signal for Churchill Downs heading into their biggest day of the year.

Enjoy!

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