November, 2018

Is Tiffany’s losing its bling…again?

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Tiffany’s (TIF) will report quarterly earnings Wednesday prior to the market open.

Here’s a quick look at consumer purchase intent metrics taken directly from the LikeFolio Research Dashboard:

As you can see, Tiffany’s has some serious company seasonality.  So we need to keep in mind that the quarter they are reporting on this week is almost irrelevant compared to the next two quarters of holiday sales and Valentines Day revenues are taken into account.

Now, if we look at that seasonality, you can quickly see that Tiffany’s really had a real struggle for several years:

Year over year purchase intent mentions were dropping significantly and consistently for several years during their most important time of year.  Not a good look for a seasonal business.  Then, last year…something different happened:

The decline finally broke, as PI mentions saw a year over year increase for the first time in five years.  Savvy traders with access to LikeFolio data could see what was coming next…

Earlier this year, the company reported earnings and revenues that beat Wall Street expectations, and the stock got a massive pop from around $108 to $138.

What’s the data showing for this report?

If you look at how PI mentions have performed since that holiday bump last year, you’ll notice two things:

  1.  TIF PI is looks weak for Q3 compared to the last 2 years.
  2.  They haven’t been showing the same level of PI increase ahead of the holidays that we’ve seen in years past. 

In other words, our data indicates that the company didn’t have a great quarter to report, and we have reason to believe that their outlook into the all-important holiday season could be quite soft.

A complete breakdown of these data points was put out in our famous Sunday Earnings Sheet, which includes opportunities on $CRM, $BIG, $DLTR and some interesting data on $LULU, $TIF, along with many other companies.

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