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September, 2021

Five Below Posts Sale Below Expectations (FIVE)

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Five Below Posts Sale Below Expectations (FIVE)

Earlier this year we identified FIVE as an ‘Early Reopening Outlier’, based on strong consumer Demand (relative to peers) and positive macro trends.

FIVE shares gained by as much as +20% in the months following our bullish call, but we always approach earnings with a critical lens – LikeFolio’s short-term earnings signal for FIVE showed a significant Mention growth slowdown in recent months, indicating a bearish earnings position.

Note the lack of quarter-over-quarter growth seen on the Purchase Intent Chart.

Yesterday, Five Below reported 21Q2 earnings up +117% YoY. However, sales fell short of analysts’ raised expectations, and shares have sold off as a result.
 
Although we’re still maintaining a cautiously bullish long-term outlook, this serves as an excellent example of how our real-time data (and unbiased approached to earnings) allows us to profit from both sides of trade.

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