Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE: TAP) stock is down over 32% in 2018 to nearly 5 year lows as “big beer” companies struggle to grow while facing the headwinds of a less enthusiastic, carb-counting consumer and fierce competition from micro-breweries popping up like wild fire.
Is it really THAT bad for Coors?
While the macro-economic landscape may be unfavorable at the moment, one of the keys to spotting value opportunity is understanding how real consumers are reacting to the brands and products on Main Street.
For that, we turn to the LikeFolio Research Dashboard.
Consumer happiness levels are fairly stable, and relatively high for their industry group. That’s a first step in determining that there isn’t really anything terribly wrong with their product (like we saw with Snapchat earlier this year before it tanked.)
Of course, the most important metric to look at is LikeFolio Consumer Purchase Intent, which gives us serious insight into the trends in consumer behavior around Coors brands (including the increasingly important hard-sparkling sector.)
In this case, we’re seeing some pretty decent numbers out of Coors’ brands. Historically, we’ve seen a strong correlation (8.5/10.0 on Likefolio Historical Confidence level) between that purchase intent metric’s movement and the stock price’s movement with a 90-120 day lag.
Bottom line: Coors’ stock looks significantly oversold here. Consumers are still happy with the products, and more of them are buying. Our data is predicting that Wednesday’s earnings report will be more positive than Wall St. expects…. and that could be just the type of catalyst this stock needs to finally turn around.