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10

December, 2018

Rough Seas Ahead For Carnival?

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Summary:

Carnival Cruise Lines is starting to show some weakness in LikeFolio’s consumer insights data.  Take a look at this from our research dashboard:

Consumer Purchase Intent Mentions for Carnival by Fiscal Quarter

Circled in blue are the last two Q4s for the company’s fiscal year.  As you can see, 2018 Q4 is significantly lower than 2017’s.  This year over year comparison gives us some insight into the trajectory of the company’s seasonality…. which looks to be turning negative for the first time in several years.

Our founder, Landon Swan, discussed this on TD Ameritrade Network this morning…

Even more concerning is the start that we are seeing on that far right bar, which represents the current pace of purchase intent mentions for the quarter we are in right now.  We’ll have to keep a really close eye on that one to see if Christmas vacation spending  bumps it up closer (or beyond) what we saw a year ago. 

If current trends hold, Carnival could be looking at rough seas ahead.

— LikeFolio spots trends on Main Street, before they become news on Wall Street.  We deliver alpha to investors via our Earnings Predictions and Opportunity Alerts.

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