2018 Q2 Earnings — Public Predictions Breakdown
18 wins, 3 losses. Purchase Intent data leads Wall St. reactions agian...
The 2nd quarter earnings season of 2018 was a pivotal moment for LikeFolio. We had just published our white paper detailing our Earnings Trading strategy, and this was the quarter where we began to apply our earnings prediction methodology to every stock in our coverage universe... and we did it all publicly.
The following is an analysis of the 31 appearances that we made publicly (on television and in print) during this critical 6-week span, including 21 bullish/bearish predictions.
Wins: 18 Losses: 3
Worst Loss: GPS
LikeFolio data predicted that Gap Stores would post strong quarterly numbers, especially in its Athleta division. While our baseline premise was correct (GPS posted revenues and earnings that beat the street), it was not enough for Wall St. and the stock sold off by more than 10% the following day.
Best Bullish Win: JWN
LikeFolio predicted a big quarter for Nordstrom, with Q2 being the highest level of purchase intent mentions we’ve ever seen for the company, indicating that they would have very high revenues reported.
Nordstrom reported blowout numbers, beating the street on revenue, earnings, and raised future guidance. The stock rallied big, claiming the top gainer spot for the S&P 500 with a total advance of over 13% on the day.
Best Bearish Win: FNKO
LikeFolio raised red flags on Funko after taking note of falling interest in Fortnite games among consumers.
Over the next 3 trading days, FNKO stock dropped over 25%.
|7/23/18||HOG||Bullish||Stock surges 7% on better than expected earnings|
|7/24/18||PZZA||Bearish at $46||Stock falls to $39 over the next 2 weeks|
|7/30/2018||AAPL||Bullish at 189||Stock surges to 222|
|7/31/2018||TSLA||Bullish at 298||Stock to $355 within a week on strong earnings|
|8/1/18||RCL||Bullish||Stock 110 to 124 over next month|
|8/2/18||SHAK||Bearish||Stock 64 to 56 the next day|
|8/8/18||ROKU||Neutral/slightly bearish||Stock blows out earnings, runs big|
|8/9/18||PLNT||Bullish||Stock +$3 the next day on great earnings|
|8/10/18||KR||Bullish||Stock drifts higher 8% nice start|
|8/13/18||M||Slight beat but negative stock reaction||Slight beat, stock moves from 40-35|
|8/14/18||WMT||Extremely bullish||Stock jumps 10% 2 days later on strong earnings|
|8/15/18||JWN||Bullish||Biggest gainer in S&P +13% on strong earnings|
|8/17/18||TJX||Bullish||beats earnings, stock up 8% in 12 days since|
|8/20/18||KSS||Bullish||strong results, stock up slightly|
|8/22/18||GPS||Bullish||Company beats on top and bottom line, stock sells off|
|8/24/18||EXPR||Bearish||Stock down 10% next morning|
|8/27/18||BBY||Slightly Bearish||Down on good report 81-77|
|8/28/18||DLTR||Bullish||Stock down big after solid earnings report|
|9/5/18||FIVE||Bullish||Stock surges after strong earnings report|
|9/7/18||FNKO||Bearish||Stock falls over 25% in next three days|
It works. Bought 10 sep 100 calls @.3 and sold this morning at 2.7. I'm now funded to be a full time trader for at least the next year.
- 6+ Years of historical data
- 270+ Covered companies
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