2018 Q2 Earnings — Public Predictions Breakdown

18 wins, 3 losses. Purchase Intent data leads Wall St. reactions agian...

The 2nd quarter earnings season of 2018 was a pivotal moment for LikeFolio.  We had just published our white paper detailing our Earnings Trading strategy, and this was the quarter where we began to apply our earnings prediction methodology to every stock in our coverage universe... and we did it all publicly.

The following is an analysis of the 31 appearances that we made publicly (on television and in print) during this critical 6-week span, including 21 bullish/bearish predictions.

IMPORTANT NOTE:  This is a recap of purely PUBLIC predictions.  LikeFolio Members get more frequent predictions and access to our Opportunity Alerts as well as On-Demand Research!

Wins:  18  Losses:  3

 


Worst Loss: GPS

LikeFolio data predicted that Gap Stores would post strong quarterly numbers, especially in its Athleta division.  While our baseline premise was correct (GPS posted revenues and earnings that beat the street), it was not enough for Wall St. and the stock sold off by more than 10% the following day.

 


Best Bullish Win: JWN

LikeFolio predicted a big quarter for Nordstrom, with Q2 being the highest level of purchase intent mentions we’ve ever seen for the company, indicating that they would have very high revenues reported.

Nordstrom reported blowout numbers, beating the street on revenue, earnings, and raised future guidance.  The stock rallied big, claiming the top gainer spot for the S&P 500 with a total advance of over 13% on the day.

 


Best Bearish Win: FNKO

LikeFolio raised red flags on Funko after taking note of falling interest in Fortnite games among consumers.

Over the next 3 trading days, FNKO stock dropped over 25%.

 


Full Listing:

Date Ticker Prediction Result
7/23/18 HOG Bullish Stock surges 7% on better than expected earnings
7/24/18 PZZA Bearish at $46 Stock falls to $39 over the next 2 weeks
7/25/18 DNKN Bullish Stock flat
7/26/18 CMG Neutral
7/27/18 DPZ Recap
7/30/2018 AAPL Bullish at 189 Stock surges to 222
7/31/2018 TSLA Bullish at 298 Stock to $355 within a week on strong earnings
8/1/18 RCL Bullish Stock 110 to 124 over next month
8/2/18 SHAK Bearish Stock 64 to 56 the next day
8/7/18 SNAP Neutral
8/8/18 ROKU Neutral/slightly bearish Stock blows out earnings, runs big
8/9/18 PLNT Bullish Stock +$3 the next day on great earnings
8/10/18 KR Bullish Stock drifts higher 8% nice start
8/13/18 M Slight beat but negative stock reaction Slight beat, stock moves from 40-35
8/14/18 WMT Extremely bullish Stock jumps 10% 2 days later on strong earnings
8/15/18 JWN Bullish Biggest gainer in S&P +13% on strong earnings
8/16/18 TGT Neutral
8/17/18 TJX Bullish beats earnings, stock up 8% in 12 days since
8/20/18 KSS Bullish strong results, stock up slightly
8/21/18 TGT Neutral
8/22/18 GPS Bullish Company beats on top and bottom line, stock sells off
8/23/18 TSLA Neutral
8/24/18 EXPR Bearish Stock down 10% next morning
8/27/18 BBY Slightly Bearish Down on good report 81-77
8/28/18 DLTR Bullish Stock down big after solid earnings report
8/29/18 DG Neutral
8/31/18 SQ, PYPL Neutral
9/4/18 NKE Neutral
9/5/18 FIVE Bullish Stock surges after strong earnings report
9/6/18 BBBY Bullish
9/7/18 FNKO Bearish Stock falls over 25% in next three days

IMPORTANT NOTE:  This is a recap of purely PUBLIC predictions.  LikeFolio Members get 100% of our Earnings Predictions plus full access to our Research Dashboard.

It works. Bought 10 sep 100 calls @.3 and sold this morning at 2.7. I'm now funded to be a full time trader for at least the next year.

- Curtis Overby | LikeFolio Member
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