December, 2018

Projecting Company Seasonality

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Projecting company seasonality midway through the busy season can give us significant insight into how well the company is performing during its most important time of year.

Fortunately, the LikeFolio Research Dashboard gives us the ability to compare how a company’s consumer purchase intent mentions are stacking up today vs any point in the past 7 years (or any points, really.)

Let’s say we want to know how Canada Goose is doing this winter compared to last year.  The process is pretty simple:

First, simply click on the most recent point on the purchase intent (PI) mentions moving average:

Canada Goose Purchase Intent Mentions — Click on most recent point

OK, now we can see that as of December 7th, Canada Goose’s 90 day moving average of PI mentions is 13.9/day.  

Let’s compare that to a similar point last year.  To do this, you may have to click around a little bit… anything within a few days should tell us what we want to know (if you want to get exact — zoom in by clicking and dragging on the chart).

Canada Goose Purchase Intent Mentions — Dec 6 2017 clicked

At this same time last year, Canada Goose’s PI mentions were at 10.2/day.  
Now we have another data point to compare to.  

This comparison tells us that the trajectory of the company’s seasonality, at least so far this year, remains intact.  It also gives us some clues as to the level of growth we can anticipate out of Canada Goose’s PI levels this holiday season — tracking at 40% YoY growth where as if you compare 2017 vs 2016 there was only a 12% growth.

In other words, we’ve figured out that Canada Goose is having a really nice 2018 holiday season so far.  The trajectory of company seasonality is not just still in place, but it is very likely accelerating.

We discussed this on TD Ameritrade Network

Andy Swan discusses how we predict the trajectory of company seasonality

— LikeFolio provides insights into consumer behaviors on Main Street, before it becomes news on Wall Street.

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