August, 2018

How SOCIAL DATA Predicted Today’s Big Stock Winner

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Yesterday we sent the following note out to LikeFolio Members:

BONUS EARNINGS TRADE– We did pretty good last week!  2/3 on this email and then PLNT came through for us nicely.  Tonight JWN reports and we are seeing reason to be bullish.  I’m selling a put spread under the market and may pick up some out of the money calls as lotto plays.

LikeFolio email to members 08/16/18

Hours later, JWN announced blowout earnings and the stock popped big:

Nordstrom stock (JWN) moved up over 10% on great earnings

What made us predict this?

At LikeFolio, we look at social-data to determine consumer purchase intent levels for companies.  Essentially we are trying to spot trends and shifts in consumer behavior on Main Street, before it becomes news on Wall Street.

Here’s what Nordstrom’s purchase intent chart from LikeFolio was showing us as we headed into the report:

LikeFolio purchase intent showed very high readings for Nordstrom for Q2

We’ve circled each of the Q2 Purchase Intent bars for Nordstrom, and as you can see, the reading for 2018 Q2 was the highest we have ever seen for the company.  That was an indication that Nordstrom would have very high revenues reported.  And they did.

Can LikeFolio Data Drill Down Further?

OK now you’re just getting greedy.  But yes… yes we can.  🙂

LikeFolio data predicted a large spike in Nordstrom digital sales

When we zoom in on just mentions of people buying from Nordstrom’s digital properties, we saw that Q2 2018 was approaching extremely high levels for the company.  Interestingly, Nordstrom reported blowout numbers on ecommerce in their report — a 29% percent increase!

LikeFolio data also predicted that Nordstrom Rack would be the brand to carry the company over the top, which it did — reporting same store sales up 4%, far surpassing Wall St. expectations.

Did anyone make money?

Yes.  In fact, this is one of our favorite tweets of the year from a LikeFolio member:



— LikeFolio’s mission is to spot shifts and trends in consumer behavior on Main Street, before they become news on Wall Street.  Investors can get access to our unique data through Opportunity Alerts as well as On-Demand research via LikeFolio memberships.  In addition, we offer the free Likefolio Letter.

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