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14

December, 2018

Holiday Weakness For Hasbro?

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Summary:

Hasbro is clearly a cyclical business with high company seasonality.  And we just happen to be smack in the middle of their most important season of all — HOLIDAY SHOPPING!

This is a chart of consumer purchase intent mentions for Hasbro over the past 6 years, taken from the famous LikeFolio Research Dashboard:

Do you see it?  The problem that Hasbro is facing here?

Take another look.

But this time, focus on the purchase intent (PI) movement that is happening now, and compare that movement to the same timeframe in prior years:

Now we can see the problem clearly:  Hasbro’s purchase intent mentions are actually dropping during what is normally their busiest season.  That’s exactly the opposite direction as the PI line normally goes during this time period.

That’s not good…. but it should be taken in context.  The PI line is still higher than it was a year ago.  It’s just the trend going into Christmas that’s concerning.

We’ll have to keep a close eye on Hasbro through the end of the year to see if it becomes worthy of an Opportunity Alert or a strong signal in our Sunday Earnings Sheet for the 4th quarter!

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