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March, 2021

Chewy Consumer Happiness Suggests Retention

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Chewy Consumer Happiness Suggests Retention

Almost exactly one year ago, we included Chewy on our Coronavirus Investor Shopping list MegaTrends report: “Chewy demand has more than tripled in the last week as homebound consumers scramble to be sure the most lovable members of the family (pets, of course) are prepped and ready.”
 
At that point, CHWY shares were trading around $36. Shares surged by more than +200% through February of this year, and are now trading around $77.Chewy’s success is driven by three things:
  1. Convenience of eCommerce
  2. Subscription Model (Autoship)
  3. Stand-out Customer Service
Chewy’s consumer happiness is 79% positive — extremely high. And qualitative analysis reveals that Chewy customers are its biggest cheerleaders. Check out consumers discussing Chewy’s customer service:
Last quarter, Autoship Customer Sales reached $1.23 billion, +42.5% YoY, and comprised 69.2% of total net sales.
 
 LikeFolio analysis of Chewy Autoship mentions show signs of retention. Mentions have increased significantly since the beginning of 2021, the overwhelming majority of are positive.
In 20Q4, total CHWY mentions increased +5% YoY (quarter ended Jan. 31).
In this instance, Buzz is the most appropriate metric to examine because historically, it is the most predictive metric.
While growth IS slowing, Autoship retention could bolster sales numbers.
 
We’ll be watching when the company reports Q4 earnings March 30 after the bell.

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