Airbnb (ABNB): Trouble in Paradise?

October 22, 2021

Airbnb (ABNB): Trouble in Paradise?

Airbnb was an undeniable beneficiary last year as consumers shifted their travel plans away from crowded hotels in big cities in favor of private -- and sometimes non-traditional -- units located in more rural locations.

I mean, can you book a tree house for the weekend through Hilton?

You can see mentions of booking a reservation via Airbnb gain momentum leading up to the start of the pandemic on the chart below. These mentions (the green line) even sustained relative resilience as many consumers ditched travel plans all together in 2020.

But now, the tides are turning.

ABNB booking mentions are losing ground with consumers, dropping 21% on a YoY basis.

At LikeFolio, we listen to consumers to understand what drives major changes in behavior…especially when these changes are related to money spent, and thus company revenue.

We've noticed 3 major trends that could be bad news for ABNB...but good news for another group of publicly traded companies.

1. Covid-related travel fears are dissipating

Just take a look at this chart of consumers discussing avoiding hotels...i.e. opting for more non-traditional lodging, like what is provided by Airbnb.

Mentions have dropped -24% YoY, and the trend continues to weaken.

2. Airbnb's are getting more expensive

Consumers are increasingly reporting increases in the cost of Airbnb rentals alongside rental unavailability: +25% YoY.

These consumers aren't mistaken.

Airbnb’s average daily rate was ~$161 a day in the 21Q2, +41% vs. the same quarter a year prior.

Short term, this could actually be a positive driver of ABNB revenue. But long-term, it may weigh on consumer happiness. ABNB sentiment levels have dropped 5 points vs. pre-Covid levels.

As the cost gap between hotels and Airbnb narrows, travelers are faced with a decision: embrace the "live-like-a-local" mindset, or opt for convenience and service amenities provided by hotels.

And it looks like consumers are keeping their options open…

3. Traditional booking sites are getting their groove back

Remember that Airbnb chart, showcasing double-digit YoY decline?

Expedia demand has increased by +29% YoY.

And Booking Holdings demand has increased by even more: +60% YoY.

While both companies DID suffer more from covid-related shifts in behavior last year, the underlying momentum is undeniable.

And this Holiday season may be one of the busiest times for travel we've seen in some time.

Keep an eye on the major players in this space, as well as key consumer trends.

Will ABNB rise alongside other hospitality peers?

Want deeper insights? Get Free Access to The Vault.

Related Posts

Airbnb is still outperforming its traditional hospitality peers

Airbnb (ABNB) AirbnB is set to report earnings for the […]

Read More
AirBnB (ABNB) Showing a Strong Spring Break

AirBnB (ABNB) Showing a Strong Spring Break AirBnB (ABNB) IPO’d […]

Read More
Hotels are Making a Comeback: $HLT $H $MAR $ABNB

Hotels are Making a Comeback: $HLT $H $MAR $ABNB ABNB […]

Read More
1 2 3 5

Related Posts

About LikeFolio

LikeFolio analyzes social media data to accurately predict shifts in consumer behavior. We sell data and insights to professional investors, corporate research teams, and software providers.
© 2024
 LikeFolio. All Rights Reserved.
LikeFolio