LikeFolio Q2 Public Earnings Predictions Recap
Below is a breakdown of LikeFolio public predictions from July 23, 2018 – September 11, 2018 (Q2 earnings season). Almost all predictions were made on the TD Ameritrade Network during their Cashtags segment (usually around 11:30AM ET). Many were supported by posts on the Likefolio blog as well as in other media outlets.
✔️ 18 correct
❌ 3 incorrect
10 Neutral prediction or still pending
July 23, 2018
LikeFolio shows an optimistic outlook for Harley-Davidson, despite headwinds, diverging from Wall Street’s overall negativity. Andy made the case on TDA Network.
Prediction: Slightly Bullish headed into earnings
✔️Result: Stock surged 7% on better than expected earnings.
July 24, 2018
✔️Result: Stock falls from $46 to $39 over the following 2 weeks
July 25, 2018
LikeFolio shows a very optimistic outlook on Dunkin, purchase intent mentions are hitting new multi-year highs. Blog post hit on Dunkin being better than Starbucks. TDA Network covered the story as well.
Result: Stock flat
July 26, 2018
After being one of our most famous historical predictions in 2017, LikeFolio finally can show some optimism towards Chipotle as it seems their consistent loss of customer traffic is over.
July 27, 2018
✔️ Recap of a bearish call that worked on $DPZ going into the prior earnings call.
power play — $AAPL Bullish
July 30, 2018
LikeFolio shows a relatively optimistic outlook on Apple heading into an earnings report that will be far less important than the Apple Keynote in September.
✔️Result: Stock rallies from $189 – $222 following a great earnings report.
power play — $TSLA Bullish
July 31, 2018
LikeFolio shows a very optimistic outlook on Tesla as they are at all-time highs in Purchase Intent Mentions, meaning the demand is extremely high for the cars they make. Discussed on TDA Network.
✔️Result: Stock rallies from $298 up to $355 within a week on strong earnings
August 1, 2018
LikeFolio shows an optimistic outlook on Royal Caribbean as well as the overall cruise market. Cited increasing consumer happiness levels and pullback in stock as an opportunity.
✔️Result: Stock moves up from $110 to $124 over the following month
August 2, 2018
LikeFolio Purchase Intent data suggests Shake Shack could be up for an earnings miss.
✔️Result: Stock falls from $64 to $56 the next day on weak earnings.
August 7, 2018
LikeFolio shows a more neutral outlook on Snapchat. They are finally back to normal after experiencing declining consumer happiness from their new interface earlier in the year, which accurately predicted the stock’s drop from $20 to near $10. Discussed on TDA Network.
$ROKU slightly bearish
August 8, 2018
After earnings came out, we revised our position to bullish in this article on how Roku is disrupting television.
Prediction: Slightly bearish
❌Result: Stock rallied +10% on very good earnings numbers.
$PLNT bullish with a caveat
August 9, 2018
LikeFolio shows an optimistic outlook for Planet Fitness; purchase intent data is looking strong, seeing year over year growth consistently.
Prediction: Strong earnings, unsure on stock’s ability to rise
✔️Result: Stock pops $3 on very strong earnings the following day
$KR Bullish long term
August 10, 2018
Prediction: Bullish long term
✔️Result: Pending but very nice start with stock up nearly 10% so far
$M interesting earnings prediction
August 13, 2018
Prediction: Macy’s revenue and sales either in-line or a slight beat, but with some acknowledgement of headwinds heading into the next quarter. Slightly Bearish
✔️Result: Macy’s reports a slight earnings beat but the stock sells off from $40-35 the next day.
power play — $WMT extremely bullish
August 14, 2018
Prediction: Extremely bullish
✔️Result: Stock up 10% on blowout earnings.
power play — $JWN bullish
August 15, 2018
LikeFolio describes an optimistic outlook on Nordstrom, with Q2 being the highest level of PI we’ve ever seen for the company, indicating that they would have very high revenues reported.
✔️Result: $JWN is the S&P top performing stock the next day, up over 13%
August 16, 2018
LikeFolio leans towards a more neutral outlook on Target compared to the Walmart blowout. Doing extremely well with their purchase intent but their acceleration has slowed.
August 17, 2018
LikeFolio data shows an optimistic outlook TJ Maxx as they continue to grow their consumer base, indicating a pretty positive quarter coming up– Purchase Intent data is very supportive that this is going to be a very good quarter for TJX & shows more and more people are shopping there.
✔️Result: Earnings beat the street, stock moves up 8% in the 12 days following.
August 20, 2018
LikeFolio data shows an extremely optimistic outlook on Kohl’s, whose growth expectation is reflected in the performance of the stock, which as doubled over the past year.
✔️Result: Strong earnings report, stock up slightly
August 21, 2018
Once again, LikeFolio leans towards more of a neutral outlook on Target but still showing optimism with Target’s new Shipt brand.
August 22, 2018
LikeFolio shows an optimistic outlook for Gap. LikeFolio data is showing a weak start to Q3 but with focusing on their strong brands such as Athleta, speculation is to the upside going into earnings.
❌ Result: Stock sells off after posting strong numbers
$TSLA investor check-in
August 23, 2018
LikeFolio discusses investor reaction to Elon Musk’s “take private” tweet.
August 24, 2018
LikeFolio sees a divergence between the stock’s recent run higher and our purchase intent data, which does not support such a move.
✔️ Result: Stock is 10% lower the next morning before recovering
$BBY slightly bearish
August 27, 2018
LikeFolio shows an optimistic outlook for Best Buy. Being such an innovative company, they have an advantage which is the luxury of immediate hands on help & products, resulting in them doing extremely well over the past several years. Concern that stock has run too much given what we see in our data.
Prediction: Slightly bearish
✔️Result: Company reports solid numbers but stock sells from 81 to 77
August 28, 2018
LikeFolio shows an optimistic outlook for Dollar Tree. Offering low prices in over 14 thousand stores, Dollar Tree has done an excellent job increasing consumer happiness. Street is expecting flat quarter; we’re seeing a bit of a divergence in the data, opportunity on the bullish side.
❌Result: Company announced better than expected earnings, stock sells off
August 29, 2018
Comparing Dollar Tree & Dollar General; LikeFolio shows a very optimistic view towards the two companies. They are both focused on where they are as a company & who their target audience is. Dollar General’s PI has been doing extremely well; highest Q2 on record, Q3 is off to a good start as well & Dollar Tree is about the same way. Dollar General is at all time high, whereas Dollar Tree has pulled back quite a bit. The two companies are almost exact mirrors as far as Purchase Intent goes.
September 4, 2018
Recapping the negative consumer reaction to Nike’s Colin Kaepernick ad.
September 5, 2018
LikeFolio purchase intent data suggests Five Below will report a solid quarterly number. Some hesitation as the stock is at high levels.
✔️ Result: Stock up 10% over the next few days after a great earnings report.
$BBBY Bullish long term
September 6, 2018
More consumers are talking about shopping here & it’s being led by their buy buy baby brand because of babies R US closing; Made it easy & convenient for expectant mothers to transition from one store to the other. Taking advantage of babies r us closing & filling in that gap with consumers.
Prediction: Bullish Long Term
power play — $FNKO Bearish
September 7, 2018
Stock is up so huge because of their July collaboration with Fortnite. The peak is behind us, and the latest drop is pretty concerning for Funko shareholders a lot based on anticipation of Fortnite; seeing a drop off.
Prediction: Bearish from $30
✔️ Result: Pending but great start with 15% drop 4 days after going on air
$AAPL Keynote preview
September 10, 2018
The Apple Keynote is one of LikeFolio’s most famous predictors. Using purchase intent volume over the course of the keynote, we have accurately predicted Apple earnings and stock movement over the following 9 months for five straight years.
September 11, 2018
Reiterate bullish position on Kroger as the company’s purchase intent mentions climb to new highs.
Prediction: Bullish (con’t)
Result: Pending but great start