Why Apple’s Earnings Report Doesn’t Matter

Why Apple’s Earnings Report Doesn’t Matter

Last September we used Purchase Intent data to predict that the iPhone X and iPhone 8 combo announced last fall would do very well for the company.  That was with the stock in the $150’s.  Turns out we got it right.  Sales have been awesome and the stock has rallied 20% since.

So what do we expect for Apple headed into this week’s earnings call?

Quick answer — it doesn’t matter.

At least not to us.  Here’s why:

That’s a chart of LikeFolio Purchase Intent over the past 6 years (through last September).

Every September, we see these mentions spike in a big way during Apple’s keynote event.  That’s when consumers make up their mind about whether or not the next iPhone (and associated components) will be in their budgets or on their Christmas lists.

The relative size of these spikes has been an incredible predictor of AAPL stock over the following 9 months (through July of the following year).  You can see that play out in the chart above, with the disappointing iPhone 6s year being followed up with the only real decline in AAPL stock in recent memory.

Take the stock price up to the current $190 after that last spike from Sept 2017 and you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about.  Another predictive Purchase Intent Spike that played out all the way through July of the following year.

And that’s where we’re at now.  The end of July — ready for an earnings report that quite frankly, doesn’t matter to us at all.

Because for us, and Apple, it’s all about the September keynote.

So instead of obsessing over the sales numbers released this week, we’ll be sitting back, enjoying the past 9 months of gains, and getting our members ready to react to biggest predictor of AAPL stock we’ve found — coming to an Opportunity Alert near you in September.

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