Has Chipotle FINALLY stopped the bleeding?

Has Chipotle FINALLY stopped the bleeding?

Chipotle has been one of LikeFolio’s biggest winners over the years.  With earnings tomorrow, we thought it’d be good to check in on the burrito-maker to see how social data says they’re doing…

Those are quarterly bars of LikeFolio Purchase Intent (PI) data, which is designed to capture consumer spending levels by analyzing the number of social media posts indicating that the user is spending money in Chipotle stores.

We’ve circled the last five Q2 bars.

As you can see, Chipotle has seen a year over year drop in Purchase Intent levels every year since its peak in Q2 of 2014…. until now.  the 2018 PI Q2 levels are just slightly lower than Q2 of 2017, but basically flat.

Essentially, this is predicting that Chipotle’s consistent loss of customer traffic is over.

Is that enough to justify the 80% rise in CMG stock since the new CEO took over or make a big bullish bet going into their earnings call?

No — the stock has probably gotten ahead of itself here.  We certainly are not issuing an Opportunity Alert on CMG this quarter.  But at least shareholders can be confident that the worst of Chipotle’s bad news is behind them.

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